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Category: Economics

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How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates

August 1, 2024

As someone who’s thinking about buying or selling a home, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates – and wondering what’s ahead. One thing that can affect mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. While the Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they do control the Federal Funds Rate. The relationship between the two is why people have been watching closely to see when the Fed might lower the Federal Funds Rate. Whenever they do, that’ll put downward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed meets next week, and three of the most important metrics they’ll look at as they make their decision are: The Rate of Inflation How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding The Unemployment Rate   Here’s the latest data on all three. 1. The Rate of Inflation You’ve probably heard a lot about inflation over the past year or two – and you’ve likely felt it whenever you’ve gone to buy just about anything. That’s because high inflation means prices have been going up quickly. The Fed has stated its goal is to get the rate of inflation back down

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Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008

July 17, 2024

Even if you didn’t own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As Business Insider says: “Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond.” Here’s why experts are so confident. For the market (and home prices) to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn’t show that’s happening. Right now, there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time – and that’s true even with the inventory growth we’ve seen this year. You see, the housing supply comes from three main sources: Homeowners deciding to sell their houses (existing homes) New home construction (newly built homes) Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)   And if we look at those three main sources of inventory, you’ll see it’s clear this isn’t like 2008. Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses Although the supply

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Foreclosure Numbers Are Nothing Like the 2008 Crash

April 24, 2024

If you’ve been keeping up with the news lately, you’ve probably come across some articles saying the number of foreclosures in today’s housing market is going up. And that may leave you feeling a bit worried about what’s ahead, especially if you owned a home during the housing crash in 2008. The reality is, while increasing, the data shows a foreclosure crisis is not where the market is headed. Here’s the latest information stacked against the historical data to put your mind at ease.   The Headlines Make the Increase Sound Dramatic – But It’s Not The increase the media is calling attention to is a little bit misleading. That’s because it’s comparing the most recent numbers to a time when foreclosures were at historic lows. And that lopsided comparison is making it sound like a much bigger deal than it actually is. Back in 2020 and 2021, there was a moratorium and forbearance program that helped millions of homeowners avoid foreclosure during challenging times. That’s why numbers for just a few years ago were so low. Now that the moratorium has come to an end, foreclosures are resuming and that means numbers are rising. But it’s an expected increase,

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Why There Won’t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market

March 26, 2024

There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we’re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn’t going to happen. According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, the economy’s pretty strong: “At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.” That might be why a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal shows only 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. That’s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (see graph below): Most experts believe there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let’s compare where we are now with historical data from Macrotrends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Trading Economics. When we do, it’s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (see graph below): The orange bar shows the average

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